Export proceeds from coffee reached new heights as the country collected USD1.01B in the first ten months of the current 2021/22 FY. According to the Ethiopian Coffee and Tea Authority, proceeds increased due to the focus on specialty export and price increase internationally.

The evidence internationally supports the claim from the Authority as the world’s largest producer – Brazil struggled with frost[1] resulting in unprecedented price increases globally. But the country has shown signs of recovery in 2022. As a result, coffee prices have gone down in March 2022 breaking a streak of seventeen consecutive months.

Ethiopia is one of the notable producers of Arabica worldwide for which prices are expected to decline by 2%[2] in 2022 due to the increase in the supply of commercial coffee. Commercial coffee buyers were forced to purchase high-priced Coffee-Arabica from countries such as Ethiopia. This trend however is expected to revert and commercial buyers will move back to commercial suppliers such as Brazil as things move back to normal post-frost.

Looking at these developments in the international coffee market it will be hard for Ethiopia to replicate the same performance in the upcoming 2022/23 FY unless the focus on specialty coffee continues. The global consumption of specialty coffee is expected to grow at a CAGR of 11.4% from 2021 to 2028. The specialty market is excepted to reach USD117.89B by 2028[3] further signifying the effort from the Ethiopian government can increase proceed from export despite global price trends.

[1] https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/threat-posed-by-frost-coffee-crops-brazil-2021-08-06/
[2] ICO Coffee Market Report April 2022
[3] Adroit Market Research – Global Specialty Market 2021